We don't have enough quality blockspace.
3:29 18 5 0 105 26K 16
bread.mega
@bread_
MegaETH
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3:29As someone who has lost funds to scammers, I can say definitively that this is not how this works at all for US persons.
Those lost funds are still classified as "sold/swapped" and you're obligated to any capital gains the wallet experiences.
Not awesome.
Those lost funds are still classified as "sold/swapped" and you're obligated to any capital gains the wallet experiences.
Not awesome.
him@gajria · Oct 7Without discrediting the $4m hack, it’s one hell of a way to exit all your positions while avoiding taxes and still maintain your reputation for not dumping on people with borrowed conviction.
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It's funny because 6mo ago everyone would see this type of post from David and dunk on him, but then he largely nailed all the assets ~everyone has since rotated into and now everyone has to do this:
David Hoffman@TrustlessState · Oct 8When I was dropping every penny I had into ETH in 2018, it's market cap was $22B
pic related
pic related
Open quoted post →
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I've introduced my non-CT group to the Jaw-dinz Leprechaun
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And frontier labs models actually feel weirdly less defensible as a product?
Blockchains explicitly benefit from being public and permissionless. The consumer derives value exactly because it's shared amongst global participants.
Many private corpo chains have risen and fallen because there is no value to an internal, single entity blockchain.
That's the exact opposite for LLMs, and as we find what the "good enough" threshold is, business entities are incentivized to host them internally. No shared secrets/inference, increased productivity, can fine-tune weights, reduced capex, etc.
All wins relative to having a model from the labs.
At least until one achieves AGI then it's GGs.
Blockchains explicitly benefit from being public and permissionless. The consumer derives value exactly because it's shared amongst global participants.
Many private corpo chains have risen and fallen because there is no value to an internal, single entity blockchain.
That's the exact opposite for LLMs, and as we find what the "good enough" threshold is, business entities are incentivized to host them internally. No shared secrets/inference, increased productivity, can fine-tune weights, reduced capex, etc.
All wins relative to having a model from the labs.
At least until one achieves AGI then it's GGs.
bread.mega@bread_ · Oct 4Frontier lab debate is ~same as L1 debate, and why you don't have to squint too hard to see value capture could be basically nothing on a long enough time horizon if these labs don't develop the apps to monetize atop their blockspace/compute.
You're seeing glimpses of that with personal agents (Muse, Dots, Grokbot) but there will be infinite businesses willing to step in and serve up alternatives on increasingly-better open source and/or more efficient models when and if those things become costly (or have costs at all!) to the end user.
Having seen this outcome with blockchain it makes me want to fade/short the IPOs of these labs, but I'm reminded that it took something like 8 years for the market to wake up to the value capture problem and numbers went bananas in the interim, so I'll avoid bear positioning and instead look for the things that will leverage the commodity produced by these labs (intelligence) and drive actual revenues.
Your blockchain anaologues here are HYPE, PUMP, Polymarket, Fomo, et al.
Open quoted post →You're seeing glimpses of that with personal agents (Muse, Dots, Grokbot) but there will be infinite businesses willing to step in and serve up alternatives on increasingly-better open source and/or more efficient models when and if those things become costly (or have costs at all!) to the end user.
Having seen this outcome with blockchain it makes me want to fade/short the IPOs of these labs, but I'm reminded that it took something like 8 years for the market to wake up to the value capture problem and numbers went bananas in the interim, so I'll avoid bear positioning and instead look for the things that will leverage the commodity produced by these labs (intelligence) and drive actual revenues.
Your blockchain anaologues here are HYPE, PUMP, Polymarket, Fomo, et al.
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Really, really good. I also think Yano deserves props for being a great interviewer.
He's genuinely curious about the journey and forces guests to deconstruct an otherwise very technically deep conversation.
Also: holy shit the compute market is going to be insane
He's genuinely curious about the journey and forces guests to deconstruct an otherwise very technically deep conversation.
Also: holy shit the compute market is going to be insane
Yano 🟪@JasonYanowitz · Oct 5The Compute Markets pod.
> why do we need compute markets
> 2017 crypto markets = 2026 compute markets (?)
> why finding GPUs takes so long
> what’s really bottlenecking AI
> what should Instinct do
> GPU lending
with @BrettHarrison + @andrawesbahou
> why do we need compute markets
> 2017 crypto markets = 2026 compute markets (?)
> why finding GPUs takes so long
> what’s really bottlenecking AI
> what should Instinct do
> GPU lending
with @BrettHarrison + @andrawesbahou
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Re: cutting CYPH (ZEC "DAT") for ZEC direct exposure
Paraphrasing @santiagoroel here:
"Nothing hurts more than being right on the thesis and choosing the wrong vehicle"
I bought HYPD to get HYPE exposure in my brokerage ~9mo ago
Performance since that time:
HYPE: +50%
HYPD: -60%
Kill me.
I looked into CYPH yesterday when I saw their ~2% ownership of ZEC supply and even with generous ZEC price expectations (300% from here) you're better off with direct ZEC exposure.
Never again with DATs unless they're verifiably at NAV and aren't doing anything fucky
Paraphrasing @santiagoroel here:
"Nothing hurts more than being right on the thesis and choosing the wrong vehicle"
I bought HYPD to get HYPE exposure in my brokerage ~9mo ago
Performance since that time:
HYPE: +50%
HYPD: -60%
Kill me.
I looked into CYPH yesterday when I saw their ~2% ownership of ZEC supply and even with generous ZEC price expectations (300% from here) you're better off with direct ZEC exposure.
Never again with DATs unless they're verifiably at NAV and aren't doing anything fucky
Tulip King 🌷@tulipking · Oct 6Quick lesson in portfolio construction:
* Cut Lit, no need for beta unless you think it actually can catch up to the leader
* Cut cyph, just use perps or calls on zec if you want more juice out of this squeeze. keep your destiny in your own hands and avoid DATs for obvious reasons. Keep in mind if zec goes to shit, Cyph does too. You’re not protecting anything in your port with this “diversification”
* same thing for Hype, cut Purr and leverage hype as needed
* near I’m not a huge fan of personally but it’s fine
^ make these cuts and you have functionally the same exposure to the market but with 3 less names. That simplification is what makes the trades easier to manage (read: you should be able to get more out of the charts)
Open quoted post →* Cut Lit, no need for beta unless you think it actually can catch up to the leader
* Cut cyph, just use perps or calls on zec if you want more juice out of this squeeze. keep your destiny in your own hands and avoid DATs for obvious reasons. Keep in mind if zec goes to shit, Cyph does too. You’re not protecting anything in your port with this “diversification”
* same thing for Hype, cut Purr and leverage hype as needed
* near I’m not a huge fan of personally but it’s fine
^ make these cuts and you have functionally the same exposure to the market but with 3 less names. That simplification is what makes the trades easier to manage (read: you should be able to get more out of the charts)
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> All assets will be tokenized because it's fundamentally better tech (read: more capital efficient)
> Stocks going through this now
> Compute is the most exhilarating net-new asset of the AI era
> Compute will inevitably be tokenized
Who's building this?
> Stocks going through this now
> Compute is the most exhilarating net-new asset of the AI era
> Compute will inevitably be tokenized
Who's building this?
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If I were to categorize I'd say:
Consensus: HYPE
Non-consensus: ZEC, PUMP
Former two still there because people are STILL, after 2 years of ~$1B/yr fee gen, skeptical of Pump sector durability. It was showing up as A/B tier coin on the recent cointier lists. Wut? Lol.
For ZEC the concern is the same as early BTC and that there is nothing fundamental about it outside of tracking shielded assets which generate ~0 revenue. You just have to forecast human psychology to gain confidence in its outcome.
Consensus: HYPE
Non-consensus: ZEC, PUMP
Former two still there because people are STILL, after 2 years of ~$1B/yr fee gen, skeptical of Pump sector durability. It was showing up as A/B tier coin on the recent cointier lists. Wut? Lol.
For ZEC the concern is the same as early BTC and that there is nothing fundamental about it outside of tracking shielded assets which generate ~0 revenue. You just have to forecast human psychology to gain confidence in its outcome.
Tulip King 🌷@tulipking · Oct 5The non consensus take across ct is still that there's a small handful of coins that make money or are money, you can rotate all your money from the many bad overpriced coins into these good coins & literally make no other trades this cycle. All of Retail & TradFi is onboarding, be patient as the tide rises & ignore temporary troughs
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TLDR is Derive v3 is Lighter, but for options.
"Deposits" into the app are still functionally bridging, but because it's not general purpose there isn't a perceived migration to a totally separate execution environment (which it is).
This is a bullish rebrand of the term imo, and actually gives a glimpse into how the Ethereum roadmap plays out.
→ Ethereum is a liquidity hub
→ Appchains link into it
This creates less of a perceived vamp on Ethereum mainnet, but it's the ~same outcome for $ETH unfortunately (your offloading the valuable part [execution]).
Very bullish for the apps tho — they get access to Ethereum liquidity, are still perceived as "Ethereum" apps, can do things like allow for Ethereum defi positions/yield as collateral, and keep all the fees/good UX by performing off chain execution.
A few more of these appchain infinity stones and Ethereum has a full slate. Should probably do a launchpad + dex combo appchain next.
"Deposits" into the app are still functionally bridging, but because it's not general purpose there isn't a perceived migration to a totally separate execution environment (which it is).
This is a bullish rebrand of the term imo, and actually gives a glimpse into how the Ethereum roadmap plays out.
→ Ethereum is a liquidity hub
→ Appchains link into it
This creates less of a perceived vamp on Ethereum mainnet, but it's the ~same outcome for $ETH unfortunately (your offloading the valuable part [execution]).
Very bullish for the apps tho — they get access to Ethereum liquidity, are still perceived as "Ethereum" apps, can do things like allow for Ethereum defi positions/yield as collateral, and keep all the fees/good UX by performing off chain execution.
A few more of these appchain infinity stones and Ethereum has a full slate. Should probably do a launchpad + dex combo appchain next.
benjii@benjii · Oct 5Derive spent V2 building a specialized chain for sophisticated derivatives. V3 takes a different approach
the execution environment becomes specialized, while Ethereum becomes the settlement and verification layer. that distinction matters as Derivatives need speed
risk calculations, pricing and matching cannot wait for every individual state transition to be processed on L1. so V3 pushes the heavy execution into a zkVM, generates proofs of the resulting state, and lets Ethereum verify the outcome.
the result is an interesting separation of responsibilities:
- fast execution where the market needs it
- cryptographic verification where trust matters
- Ethereum settlement underneath it all
that gives @DeriveXYZ a much stronger foundation for composability. if the state of a derivatives market can be verified against Ethereum, the market becomes easier to integrate with the rest of DeFi
Wallets can interact with it, Vaults can build on it && Structured products can settle against it
Agents can potentially use it as a financial execution layer. other applications don’t necessarily need to become their own derivatives venue
they can build on the infrastructure underneath. that’s the part i personally think gets overlooked when people describe V3 as simply “moving Derive back to Ethereum.”
the interesting shift is architectural
-V2 specialized the chain
-V3 specializes the execution
Ethereum provides the settlement layer
and ZK proofs connect the two:)
if Derive can execute increasingly sophisticated financial logic while anchoring the resulting state to Ethereum, the addressable market becomes much larger than the users on derive.xyz
the frontend becomes one distribution channel
the protocol becomes the infrastructure
that’s a much more interesting bet
Derive Simplified
the execution environment becomes specialized, while Ethereum becomes the settlement and verification layer. that distinction matters as Derivatives need speed
risk calculations, pricing and matching cannot wait for every individual state transition to be processed on L1. so V3 pushes the heavy execution into a zkVM, generates proofs of the resulting state, and lets Ethereum verify the outcome.
the result is an interesting separation of responsibilities:
- fast execution where the market needs it
- cryptographic verification where trust matters
- Ethereum settlement underneath it all
that gives @DeriveXYZ a much stronger foundation for composability. if the state of a derivatives market can be verified against Ethereum, the market becomes easier to integrate with the rest of DeFi
Wallets can interact with it, Vaults can build on it && Structured products can settle against it
Agents can potentially use it as a financial execution layer. other applications don’t necessarily need to become their own derivatives venue
they can build on the infrastructure underneath. that’s the part i personally think gets overlooked when people describe V3 as simply “moving Derive back to Ethereum.”
the interesting shift is architectural
-V2 specialized the chain
-V3 specializes the execution
Ethereum provides the settlement layer
and ZK proofs connect the two:)
if Derive can execute increasingly sophisticated financial logic while anchoring the resulting state to Ethereum, the addressable market becomes much larger than the users on derive.xyz
the frontend becomes one distribution channel
the protocol becomes the infrastructure
that’s a much more interesting bet
Derive Simplified
Open quoted post →
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@bread_ reposted
In Singapore for @token2049?
The MegaCrew is on the ground and ready to meet builders, devs, and the community.
Come say hi to @bread_, @machiuwuowo & @artemis_onchain ✌️
🇸🇬🐇
The MegaCrew is on the ground and ready to meet builders, devs, and the community.
Come say hi to @bread_, @machiuwuowo & @artemis_onchain ✌️
🇸🇬🐇
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@bread_ reposted
my lovely colleagues @bread_ @machiuwuowo and @artemis_onchain are in sg if you want to see mega people
Shuyao Kong@hotpot_dao · Oct 5was supposed to be giving a TOKEN2049 keynote this week, but i've cancelled the sg trip last minute.
we have more important things to ship. gmega
Open quoted post →we have more important things to ship. gmega
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Things I've learned from this post:
- There are a shit ton of teams attempting to build on Derive v3 akin to builder code frontends to Hyperliquid. Probably have 8 diff protocols in the comments.
- A handful of non-Derive protocols are also working on the problem (Dream, Paradex, etc)
- I'm actually warming to the idea that UI innovation isn't completely required and that options themselves can just capture sophisticated traders and win enough there given their expressivity and the amount of pro traders who would end up pairing their perp positions with them
- @koolkrypto223 threads were dropped in + listened to a podcast and have to admit the thesis is strong when you hear the deeper issues with large traders, desks and retail trying to utilize options. I'm always more bullish on protocols which create/facilitate markets themselves and it sounds like Derive has that ability here with RFQ structure.
My bear outlook for v3 deployment is just that creating an entire ecosystem just takes time, which means it'll land but building up liquidity, assets and users won't hit the bullposting material immediately. Feels like a sell the news event that'll reward dip buyers as traction picks up.
- There are a shit ton of teams attempting to build on Derive v3 akin to builder code frontends to Hyperliquid. Probably have 8 diff protocols in the comments.
- A handful of non-Derive protocols are also working on the problem (Dream, Paradex, etc)
- I'm actually warming to the idea that UI innovation isn't completely required and that options themselves can just capture sophisticated traders and win enough there given their expressivity and the amount of pro traders who would end up pairing their perp positions with them
- @koolkrypto223 threads were dropped in + listened to a podcast and have to admit the thesis is strong when you hear the deeper issues with large traders, desks and retail trying to utilize options. I'm always more bullish on protocols which create/facilitate markets themselves and it sounds like Derive has that ability here with RFQ structure.
My bear outlook for v3 deployment is just that creating an entire ecosystem just takes time, which means it'll land but building up liquidity, assets and users won't hit the bullposting material immediately. Feels like a sell the news event that'll reward dip buyers as traction picks up.
bread.mega@bread_ · Oct 4Man, I really want to get in on the DRV trade but options UI hurdle is just...not great. There are just too many variables for an unsophisticated trader.
Even having traded options and understanding the basics (Theta, IV, etc) it still makes me want to nope-out.
(and I did when trying to long PUMP this past week - opting for 1.3x perp)
Surely someone is trying to innovate here?
Even having traded options and understanding the basics (Theta, IV, etc) it still makes me want to nope-out.
(and I did when trying to long PUMP this past week - opting for 1.3x perp)
Surely someone is trying to innovate here?
Open quoted post →
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Feels like we continue to see a wave of these modernized early-2000s gadgets.
Saw a post for a modern Zune/iPod the other day, disposable cameras are everywhere and now we're bringing back landlines.
Next up:
Walkie-talkies
Tamagotchis
Pagers
Saw a post for a modern Zune/iPod the other day, disposable cameras are everywhere and now we're bringing back landlines.
Next up:
Walkie-talkies
Tamagotchis
Pagers
Robbie Hendricks@robbiehendricks · Oct 4The Tin Can maybe be the best gift I’ve ever given my children.
They’re little WiFi telephones. Kids get their own phone number, but I control all access through the app.
My little boys can call me, mommy, grandparents, each other, and 911. That’s it.
(And those are the only numbers that can call them. Totally safe.)
$8/mo per line. Easy peasy.
Love it for a few reasons:
• Random phone calls from your little ones at work is life giving
• They can stay in touch with their grandparents, and surprise them with calls
• They have a way to call 911. Like most houses, we’re cell phone only these days. Having this method for them to contact grandparents or 911 for an emergency is a comfort.
No affiliation to them. Just love the product and wanted to share.
They’re little WiFi telephones. Kids get their own phone number, but I control all access through the app.
My little boys can call me, mommy, grandparents, each other, and 911. That’s it.
(And those are the only numbers that can call them. Totally safe.)
$8/mo per line. Easy peasy.
Love it for a few reasons:
• Random phone calls from your little ones at work is life giving
• They can stay in touch with their grandparents, and surprise them with calls
• They have a way to call 911. Like most houses, we’re cell phone only these days. Having this method for them to contact grandparents or 911 for an emergency is a comfort.
No affiliation to them. Just love the product and wanted to share.
Open quoted post →
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Man, I really want to get in on the DRV trade but options UI hurdle is just...not great. There are just too many variables for an unsophisticated trader.
Even having traded options and understanding the basics (Theta, IV, etc) it still makes me want to nope-out.
(and I did when trying to long PUMP this past week - opting for 1.3x perp)
Surely someone is trying to innovate here?
Even having traded options and understanding the basics (Theta, IV, etc) it still makes me want to nope-out.
(and I did when trying to long PUMP this past week - opting for 1.3x perp)
Surely someone is trying to innovate here?
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I haven't updated my crypto podcast list in like a year. Any new ones worth listening to?
Would also like some good top-level AI-focused pods.
Would also like some good top-level AI-focused pods.
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Frontier lab debate is ~same as L1 debate, and why you don't have to squint too hard to see value capture could be basically nothing on a long enough time horizon if these labs don't develop the apps to monetize atop their blockspace/compute.
You're seeing glimpses of that with personal agents (Muse, Dots, Grokbot) but there will be infinite businesses willing to step in and serve up alternatives on increasingly-better open source and/or more efficient models when and if those things become costly (or have costs at all!) to the end user.
Having seen this outcome with blockchain it makes me want to fade/short the IPOs of these labs, but I'm reminded that it took something like 8 years for the market to wake up to the value capture problem and numbers went bananas in the interim, so I'll avoid bear positioning and instead look for the things that will leverage the commodity produced by these labs (intelligence) and drive actual revenues.
Your blockchain anaologues here are HYPE, PUMP, Polymarket, Fomo, et al.
You're seeing glimpses of that with personal agents (Muse, Dots, Grokbot) but there will be infinite businesses willing to step in and serve up alternatives on increasingly-better open source and/or more efficient models when and if those things become costly (or have costs at all!) to the end user.
Having seen this outcome with blockchain it makes me want to fade/short the IPOs of these labs, but I'm reminded that it took something like 8 years for the market to wake up to the value capture problem and numbers went bananas in the interim, so I'll avoid bear positioning and instead look for the things that will leverage the commodity produced by these labs (intelligence) and drive actual revenues.
Your blockchain anaologues here are HYPE, PUMP, Polymarket, Fomo, et al.
Kyle@zeroxkyle · Oct 4watching AI maxis today is like watching blockchain maxis in 2021. everyone knew what blockchains were, and they were sharing similar graphs - how 0.1% of the world was using blockchains
guess what, blockchains didn't become the rails for property nfts, taxes, or identification. it is one thing to take that chart in isolation, but another to take it in conjunction w the fact that *the whole world* knows about AI. it isn't some niche thing
so if the whole world knows about something, why are so little people using it? precisely becaus they don't deem it valuable enough to pay for it. it's not that they aren't using it - the free version is just good enough. it's like google search!
modern AI debate is basically a two-camp debate between frontier gurus who are trying to build machine god (IQ 200 -> IQ 1000 jump) who are out of touch w reality and convinced no one uses AI
vs people at the ground, seeing adoption, and realising that people don't need that - real adoption is in Muse (see # of downloads vs Chat gpt on launch) ; and that we don't need as much compute as we think we do
and even the people on the ground are having a hard time figuring out the good biz model for AI - because again, 99% of the tasks like answering emails, booking flights are menial and not recurring enough
you know what AI is used the most for? video. i'm 100% sure vid gen will be the most successful AI vertical to ever exist (i still don't have a good long for that)
and i think that people will converge to the reality that AI is just a useful tool, and not something groundbreaking for 90% of workplace. for the 10% (phd, academic, research, etc.) they can continue using frontier models. but 90% of consultancies, businesses, etc. will just use normal AI. and costs for that will go down so much.
Open quoted post →guess what, blockchains didn't become the rails for property nfts, taxes, or identification. it is one thing to take that chart in isolation, but another to take it in conjunction w the fact that *the whole world* knows about AI. it isn't some niche thing
so if the whole world knows about something, why are so little people using it? precisely becaus they don't deem it valuable enough to pay for it. it's not that they aren't using it - the free version is just good enough. it's like google search!
modern AI debate is basically a two-camp debate between frontier gurus who are trying to build machine god (IQ 200 -> IQ 1000 jump) who are out of touch w reality and convinced no one uses AI
vs people at the ground, seeing adoption, and realising that people don't need that - real adoption is in Muse (see # of downloads vs Chat gpt on launch) ; and that we don't need as much compute as we think we do
and even the people on the ground are having a hard time figuring out the good biz model for AI - because again, 99% of the tasks like answering emails, booking flights are menial and not recurring enough
you know what AI is used the most for? video. i'm 100% sure vid gen will be the most successful AI vertical to ever exist (i still don't have a good long for that)
and i think that people will converge to the reality that AI is just a useful tool, and not something groundbreaking for 90% of workplace. for the 10% (phd, academic, research, etc.) they can continue using frontier models. but 90% of consultancies, businesses, etc. will just use normal AI. and costs for that will go down so much.
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Hit me up if you're at KBW this week, or Token next.
Will be on the ground meeting teams and talking mega + markets.
Will be on the ground meeting teams and talking mega + markets.
MegaETH@megaeth · Sep 28See you at @kbwofficial
The Mega Team will be around all week. Builders, community, and attendees, come find us!
🇰🇷🐇
The Mega Team will be around all week. Builders, community, and attendees, come find us!
🇰🇷🐇
Open quoted post →
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Omg I forgot the one that zapped literal years out of me.
I was the most dominant breeder of Thylacoleo across public servers on Xbox for a year. Had tons of spreadsheets of dino stats paired with overnight alarms to wake up and feed babies.
Sick period of my life 😅
I was the most dominant breeder of Thylacoleo across public servers on Xbox for a year. Had tons of spreadsheets of dino stats paired with overnight alarms to wake up and feed babies.
Sick period of my life 😅
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Actually pretty hard.
Special mention: Pokemon Snap
Special mention: Pokemon Snap
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