jords

it's sad to see and it's honestly kind of sadder that everyone is saying things like 'you'll bounce back!' as if the answer to this is continuing to gamble

for those who read the words that was exactly the problem, trying to chase losses and bounce back led to far more loss than was necessary. what is needed is reflection and a bit of a break

one of the main causes of blowups is oversizing as you get richer. if you start with $10k and make $100k, all of the sudden you want to size $100k into the same bets bc you imagine the returns

but what is more likely to occur is you chase losses and zero out faster

you think that because you didn't have that money before it is somehow not real money

stay with your same size and slowly increase over time if that's what you feel is necessary. don't size up immediately or you will likely find ruin on the other side

even the practice of being disciplined enough to stay with size less than you have will serve you well at the future moment where you need to adjust your risk tolerance in order to keep it all

happy weekend friends

jords.life/p/what-if-your…
my thoughts on measuring success and calling the top on the term nepo-baby

obligatory like and comment so that I continue seeing jords content as reminders to self

praise be to the elon algo, you have done many a wrong, but every now and then you surprise me with a small act of grace

can't stress this point enough

the single biggest differentiator between those who make it and those who don't is that moment in time when you change from wealth generation (greed) to wealth conservation

if you never change your risk tolerance then you will go to zero at some stage, and if you accept that you will have to change your risk tolerance at some point, then you should map out what that looks like for you

whether it be cashing out xyz or changing to btc / stocks

get a clear vision of what that looks like so you can execute

over the next 5yrs, the probability of a us debt crisis and the probability of any individual tech company getting existentially disrupted by ai are materially higher than the probability of ai/quantum breaking crypto

so sell ur btc, but sell it into what? cash and bonds that are going to 0? or tech companies facing existing threats while also in a giant reflexive bubble? or yet something else that u did 2hrs of “due diligence” and convinced urself u understand?

the point is, if u r spooked by the ai/quantum risk and sold ur coins, u r almost certainly misjudging magnitude of this risk vs the risks of other assets u r sold ur coins into.

are we saying tee-wap or twap

if it was consensus then it would be easy

crypto has carried an inherent risk since its inception. regulation, hacks, ponzis

now we have quantum/ai

the show goes on for those willing to eat the risk

one thing you don't want to do is convince yourself that in order for your token to win the rest of the industry needs to lose

starting to see this mindset with ppl long privacy/quantum coins

obviously there is money to be made longing narratives, we are all here to make money

but don't start preaching that the entire industry is going to collapse except your coin because it is resistant to xyz

the ppl saying btc to zero bc they're long privacy coins are the same as the bitcoiners who were championing regulation for alt-coins last cycle

recording new pod + posting new substack this morning then going to play tennis in the sun followed by beers for sunset w friends

great day to have a great day

07/10

this is just the mandatory post-crypto-conference dump btw

happens every year

pain is necessary

think a lot of ppl are going to get rinsed trying to overtrade this chop

am just going to sit on my hands and sell much higher next year

hope they got his parents signature before allowing him on a public stage

think post-quantum / ai resistant coins will be a continuing narrative for the next decade

not sure the best way to position for it just yet but feels like a medium to monitor closely

the token might not exist yet, could be something new that comes that is purpose built for this rather than existing things trying to pivot/hardfork

will be keeping a close eye on this gap

personally don't think zec fills it, although it has clearly benefitted (and will likely continue) from the narrative. i have similar feelings about prl at it's current valuation

always feel free to dm me if something is on your radar

reminder jords pod exists n there's 4 episodes out

if hype goes to $150+ next year ill go to the nyc stuff

reminder that you should never hold significant wealth in a hot wallet

if you have been lazy on this and let it accumulate, fix it

also make sure you have all your seeds backed up, don't rely on wallets or computers/phones to work forever

personally getting bad vibes on the market but structurally still looks good to me. my cope is the gold/btc chart which looks great and is part of a long term play for me

an older version of jords would take some profits here but my philosophy for this cycle is that i won't sell unless i think the top is in, and i think everything trades much higher next year

so im going to just hold my btc + hype and wait for my positions to be held >12 months. my current targets are sometime in q1-q2 next year to exit but will keep that updated, and ofc will depend on if i think the cycle high is in or close

think a bit more chop and some of the shitter coins dying is a necessary sacrifice for the xmas rally