Luke Tryl

Why do I think Labour's result in Holborn was good? Winning aside, Governing parties usually get hit hard in by-elections (not always Hartlepool was a clear exception). But the drop in Holborn was below the average for defending a seat of by-elections in any post-war parliament.

Wider context to the Holborn result: this chart shows the proportion of Labour’s 2024 vote going to different parties. Post Gorton over 1 in 10 Labour 24 voters were going to the Greens - that number has more than halved as Labour’s retention improved, particularly on the left.

This perhaps captures how Greens momentum has dipped. The swing to the Greens in Holborn was less than half that in Gorton and Denton at 13% and if you were to include Feinstein voters in the Green column the swing is just 4.

Obviously not helped by the fact he is in self imposed exile. But Holborn was George Galloway’s worst ever result in a Westminster election.

3000+ majority for Labour, comfortable and a sign of Burnham’s gains on the left. Labour vote barely drops. Green vote significantly up from 2024, but less impressive if you assume lots of Feinstein 2024 voters went to the Greens. Bad result for the Greens but not at worst end

Drop in turnout in Holborn and St Pancras between the General Election and By-election not terrible compared to other parliaments; but larger than we’ve seen in other by elections this one. Likely the contest felt less existential on all sides than one where Reform viable.

🧵Polls have closed in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Labour will be hoping for a clear win that further demonstrates Burnham has consolidated the left vote. The Greens will be hoping a Polanski victory can reignite their momentum after a dip in recent months.

New episode! Analysing Badenoch’s conference speech and who the Tories are trying to reach

Huge day in politics (could do with rather fewer tbh). Lots of focus will be on what Holborn means for direct Labour-Green contests, but in truth the bigger impact was always likely to be in Labour-Reform/Tory contests where a left split could let the right through.

🚨M&S Kemi: can the Tory leader win over core vote? - do have a listen to our latest #politicsweekly podcast.

With expert insight & analysis from @LukeTryl on the Tories, Labour, Reform and all the other political parties as conference season winds down*

Join @kiranstacey & I as we discuss the disconnect between Tory buoyancy in Birmingham and how they're actually faring with voters... Plus:

🏡 how Kemi Badenoch's inheritance tax plans could shore up the traditional Tory base

🇬🇧 why her powerful defence of non-white people being British lays down a marker for her party

💪 whether her vice-like grip of the Tories will be a strength or her achilles heel

🩵 why she firmly rejected 'uniting the right' with Reform UK amid fears of toxifying the Tory brand

(*SNP next weekend)
theguardian.com/politics/audio…

People also tend not to accept the suggestion that skin colour or ethnic background determine whether someone is English. Including an overwhelming majority of Reform voters.

Badenoch Speech - and indeed much of conference - has been an attempt to shift the debate onto a traditional red/blue split on economics. It’s both something that unifies Tory considerers on left and right (who differ on eg net-zero) & is stronger ground vs Reform than migration

Think that’s the toughest I’ve seen a Tory leader been on Reform since their emergence as a serious political force, directly taking on claims about Englishness and identity from some Reform politicians. Feels a significant change in approach.

Shout out to M&S from Kemi Badenoch in her conference speech. You might call it a shout out to the base, as our supermarket polling found the Tories with an 8pt lead among M&S shoppers.

Total 360 from the Starmer-Sunak era when it felt like arguing over the details. This conference season if it’s defined by anything is a return to conviction politics and ideas. Both Burnham & Badenoch (& Farage/Polanski) far more willing to want to make a case for an ideology.

🧵As Kemi Badenoch prepares to make her speech to Conservative Party Conference - our new polling has the Conservatives on 21%, 13 points below Badenoch’s personal approval rating a new record. So why is there such a gap? Our latest research digs into the state of the Tory Party

In our latest voting intention, Labour hit 29% their highest since 2024, Reform move to 2nd & Greens fall to lowest since August 2025

🌹 LAB 29% (+2)
⏩ REF 24% (+3)
🌳 CON 21% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 10% (-1)
🟢 GREEN 7% (-2)
⚫ RES: 4% (-2)

N 2,088 | Dates 3-5/10 | Change w 29/09

A Tory-Reform pact would be bad for both parties, too many Tories don’t like Reform and for Reform it would blunt their insurgent edge.
In a tactical voting scenario almost as many Tory voters say they’d vote Labour to stop Reform as would vote Reform to stop Labour.