Firas Maksad

@FirasMaksad

Managing Director for Middle East & North Africa @EurasiaGroup; Associate Fellow @MiddleEastInst; views my own.

Washington D.C. Joined June 2011

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@FirasMaksad reposted

Ali Shihabi علي الشهابي

@aliShihabi

In my @FoxNews piece, I explain why the #Houthi threat extends far beyond #SaudiArabia, driving up global energy costs, and how limited US air power could hasten victory for Saudi backed Yemeni forces.
foxnews.com/opinion/houthi… #FoxNews

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@FirasMaksad reposted

@samdagher

“Executives from Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips and Chevron this week expressed their appetite for investing in the world’s most prolific oil-producing region, arguing that its plentiful, low-cost reserves outweighed the heightened risks.
The display of confidence is set to continue this weekend when many of the same executives travel to Riyadh at the invitation of Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman for the World Petroleum Congress”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

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@FirasMaksad

#Yemen is a multi-front, multi-stage war—with risks to global energy & shipping rising as #Saudi-backed forces advance.

The US will have a significant say, and direct involvement cannot be ruled out.

But in the new Middle East, Washington wants partners to carry more of the burden—as the activation of the Mecca Defense Alliance demonstrates.

Saudi- #UAE cooperation is significant: it suggests the region’s competing Islamic & Abrahamic coalitions can manage their differences when it comes to weakening Iran’s axis.

More via @BeckyCNN & @EurasiaGroup

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@FirasMaksad

Your track record speaks for itself @samdagher. Looking forward to working together and producing great, high-quality work on the Gulf’s evolving geoeconomic landscape.

Welcome! 🙂👍

Sam Dagher@samdagher · Oct 5

Personal News: Excited to join @EurasiaGroup's Middle East & North Africa team as a consultant, collaborating with the multi-talented @FirasMaksad and other top-notch colleagues and experts. My focus will be on geoeconomics & long-term investments and transformations in the Gulf Arab region (Photo: Blue Eye Picture, Dubai)

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@FirasMaksad

The US completed its withdrawal from Iraq yesterday. The deadline for dismantling Iran-backed militias, meanwhile, was extended.

This is more than an Iraq story. It is a prelude to a broader shift in the US military posture across the Middle East.

CENTCOM’s strategy increasingly emphasizes a smaller footprint, stronger partners and greater regional integration—moving from security guarantor to security integrator.

The implications are profound.

As the US pulls back, regional powers are building new coalitions: Turkey–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan on one side; Greece–Israel–UAE–India on another.

So far, the emerging order looks less like integration than fragmentation—Islamic and Abrahamic blocs forming around competing security interests.

And every step back by Washington creates space for strategic competitors to step forward.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/27/sau…

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@FirasMaksad

The averted Flydubai disaster creates an opening just as Yemen is about to take center stage—where Israeli & Saudi interests converge.

Will Riyadh & Jerusalem cooperate?

Netanyahu will be tempted to exploit it politically. Riyadh has a different calculus.

More w/@BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup

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@FirasMaksad

Senior Saudi officials deny meeting in UAE.

Bibi wants to kiss & tell in Yemen.

He has an interest in delivering a blow to the Houthis—and flaunting Israeli-GCC cooperation ahead of elections.

Possible to see Israel act alongside Saudi in Yemen. But at best, the Saudis will walk in tandem. No holding hands.

i24news.tv/en/news/middle…

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@FirasMaksad

“Tension is inevitable,” I told @FT as Washington steps back from its historic role as the Gulf’s lead security partner.

“The space it leaves behind will create opportunities for strategic competitors.”

“Riyadh has been diversifying its security partners while attempting an uneasy accommodation with Tehran. The tension in its relationship with Washington could accelerate that process.”

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… ‘MBS will not forget’: Donald Trump’s reluctance to fight Houthis rattles Saudi Arabia

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@FirasMaksad

Behind today’s smiles as Trump meets GCC leaders is a growing concern: Is America still willing & able to play its traditional role as the Gulf’s security provider?

If not, some US partners may decide to cut their own deals with #Iran.

The risk is real.
@BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup

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@FirasMaksad

A Lebanese cowboy, a legend, and a trailblazer for many of us who try to bridge between America & the Arabs.

There’s no one like @hisham_melhem.

Listening to him tell the story of his life is a pleasure, a privilege, and a lesson in its own right.

Middle East Institute@MiddleEastInst · Sep 16

"My infatuation with American popular culture helped me. ... I was very critical of US policy vis-a-vis Palestine and of the war in Vietnam, but I never fell into the trap of becoming anti-American," @hisham_melhem tells @Katulis.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/his…

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@FirasMaksad

Spoke to @FT about Riyadh’s policy dilemma. “It cannot submit to growing Houthi demands under military pressure, but it also cannot afford an escalation that results in a two-front war that could cost half of Aramco.”

Ultimately, “maintaining its ability to produce and export its oil is exponentially more important than victory against the Houthis.”

For that reason, and given Houthi caution not to draw in the US, the Saudi - Houthi war will return to one of more managed escalation.

ft.com/content/a143e0…

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@FirasMaksad

Ali is right to question if America can afford to allow Iran & the Houthis to dominate two maritime choke points.

But if the Houthis refrain from closing the strait and focus on Saudi instead, they’re likely to getaway with it.

Houthi overreach is the best Saudi can hope for.

Ali Shihabi علي الشهابي@aliShihabi · Sep 11

The real #Houthi prize is not now territory. It is leverage. A militia positioned around Bab al Mandeb can impose costs on economies thousands of miles away. Geography turns a local armed movement into a player in global trade.

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@FirasMaksad

“Talks this weekend no longer realistic but efforts are ongoing,” according to senior officials.

Unclear if the delay in US - #Iran mediation efforts directly impacted by dramatic developments in #Yemen 👀

Firas Maksad@FirasMaksad · Sep 9

A new Iran-US ceasefire proposal is on the table. Mediators convene this weekend.

Obstacles remain real: Iran’s political fragmentation, and a Trump riding high after squeezing more oil through Hormuz.

Trump holds more cards — but Fall refined product shortages could flip the table.

More w/@BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup

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@FirasMaksad

A new Iran-US ceasefire proposal is on the table. Mediators convene this weekend.

Obstacles remain real: Iran’s political fragmentation, and a Trump riding high after squeezing more oil through Hormuz.

Trump holds more cards — but Fall refined product shortages could flip the table.

More w/@BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup

3:37

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@FirasMaksad

US-Iran: stuck in a coercive stalemate till year-end.

Expect flare-ups, not war. Iran keeps hitting shipping/US bases to extract a price; the US keeps countering to keep it open. Neither wants a real fight.

But the clocks aren’t synced:

→ Iran’s exports are near zero under blockade.

→ US “shuttle service” is scaling fast. UAE oil exports back to pre-war levels. Saudi & others up significantly too.

→ Trump’s own clock speeds up by the Fall, when product shortages get harder to hide.

Iran will feel more pain faster, but will it buckle?

W/@jimsciutto @CNN @EurasiaGroup

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@FirasMaksad

30+ ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily.

Iran knows its ability to weaponize the strait—and the economic pain it inflicts on the GCC—will diminish over time.

The real risk is #Iran choosing escalation, not compromise, as Trump’s economic warfare bites.

That’s why the GCC is racing to up defense and deterrence. 👇

ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/…

Mohammed Maree محمد مرعي@mar3e · Aug 28

All analyses and assessments point to the effectiveness of the tough U.S. sanctions on Iran. What is striking, however, is the extent to which Washington appears to be betting on time. But what about the impact and consequences of allowing the crisis to continue, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, on the Gulf Arab states especially their oil and gas exports? If the crisis were to continue for two or three years, it would have a major impact on the economic conditions of these countries.
The region and its peoples need a fundamental solution that takes into account the interests of all parties. And yes, we will say it again: “Iran is not Venezuela.” The U.S. may be making a major miscalculation by failing to recognize that Iran’s regime is ideological and religious, and that it is unlikely to surrender even if Iran were completely devastated.
These U.S. sanctions could potentially have been successful and decisive in the long run if the Strait of Hormuz had remained open. But the continued closure of the strait, Iran’s control over it, and its threats to international navigation undermine the impact of any sanctions.

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@FirasMaksad

Economic warfare may be Trump’s most promising path against Iran—but it faces three big obstacles:

China: Washington is unlikely to sanction Chinese entities before the Trump–Xi summit next month.

Iran’s trade partners: Success requires UAE, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and Oman to enforce the pressure. The UAE’s recent announcement is a significant step.

Patience: Economic strangulation takes time. Lots of it—not exactly President Trump’s defining characteristic.

More via @EleniGiokos @cnni @EurasiaGroup

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@FirasMaksad

… the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now united in their aggravation with the administration. Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.

“There has been frustration from the get-go,” said Firas Maksad, director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, he said, feel they were “unnecessarily entangled” in a war that Trump is now struggling to resolve.

Maksad, who has extensive contacts within Gulf leadership, said Trump’s Iran policy is often described in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.”

@washingtonpost @EurasiaGroup

washingtonpost.com/world/2026/08/…

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@FirasMaksad

Re-upping our map of the new Middle East alliances from January, with “Islamic Coalition” vs. “Abrahamic.”

Focus on #Iran is short-term. Think bigger, longer-term, with implications beyond just defense.

@EurasiaGroup @ForeignPolicy 👇

Firas Maksad@FirasMaksad · Jan 27

3/ Opposing it is an emerging Islamic coalition, status quo powers, led by #Saudi Arabia, alongside #Turkey, #Pakistan, #Qatar & a cautious #Egypt. They argue the #Israel - #UAE axis is destabilizing, projecting power by encouraging fragmentation in the region's conflict zones.

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