TGIF! Crypto got hit yesterday with falls across the complex with ethereum:native esp hit last couple of days following on from news by $BMNR . Funding hit negative across CEX last night with only some mild recovery this morning
Happy Thursday! A sea of red welcomes traders with oil and yield dominating headlines. With rumours of more strikes in #IranWar and no let up on French pressure contagion risk in yields is real. With a generation of traders used to RFR in the 0-1% mark seeing such elevated ir volatility and at 'high' nominal values is giving #marilynmanson headaches
Happy Wednesday! #SP500 new ATH on earnings optimism is being clouded by elevated #oil, bond yields and #dollar, so don't think many people on the street expect this to last. Already this morning futures have started moving lower..
Happy Tuesday! Mkt had a recovery buoyed by falling oil, OATs coming off and $NVDA hitting all time helping give legs to AI trade once again. This also led nasdaq and S&P to ATH. Oil remains the watch word with oil well back to pre war levels although now its a question of getting the right oil into the pumps...namely diesel
Happy Monday! Elections and bonds set to dominate proceedings this week with elections in Brazil, Canada and UK. First round results in Brazil make Bolonaro odds on favourite with #polymarket marking it as 83% currently. Cash market in Japan is up 11% while #binance shows muted response vs BRL and #hyperliquid only shows cash market in USDT terms up 5% having hit discovery band..Lets see once cash market opens in brazil where it stands
Happy Hump Day! Yield story continues to play out with 30s taking the main narrative as yield hit highest level since pre GFC. We said previously that at these levels bonds get attractive on dv01 basis and that is something now being repeated in main stream press #duration#convexity#dv01
TGIF! Yields continue to create news with sensational headlines permeating . MOVE index 'move' was another eye catcher #move . Yield sensationalism news will continue as everyone suddenly becomes a FI expert...Meanwhile convexity starts giving opportunity esp at 10s-30s range #yield#convexity
Happy Wednesday! While BTC took a breather alts gathered momentum with bitcoin-cash:native and ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 pick of the bunch with news @CMEGroup will have listed futures on both next month. celestia:native also an outperformer on the back of a proposal aiming to increase revenue stream. zcash:native continues to drive higher
Happy #fomc day! And so begins the dominos of CB rate decision with FOMC kickstarting proceedings closely followed by Brazil, BOE, BOJ and SA. With #Clarity failing to pass on last night vote a number of #alts fell off with ripple:native a notable faller. Real question is what happens in FOMC later today. While markets are pricing in a given, the vote may well be tighter than that. Given this is a supply driven issue how effective would a rate rise be in bringing it down...
TGIF! We stated yesterday to expect volatility in SCANDI and did it deliver. #NOK and #SEK jumping 1% from inflation Norway's numbers. The inflation story is an almost global one and traders may well need to dust off books pre GFC. With PCE out yesterday and CPI numbers out today.. details will matter and stronger emphasis should possibly placed on direction of core inflation given the tightness of FOMC. While oil has moved sig higher and cash market still seems resolute based on strong earnings despite oil and rate moves.. its akin to Damocles sword #oil
Happy Thursday! A sea of red envelops markets as follow through on yields hit cash and crypto side. With US down last night follow through into Asia has begun, with majors down. Today is of course run up to rate moves next week with FOMC, BOJ, BOE, SELIC all looking to announce over the next week. Starting today we have both jobless claims and PPI numbers which will have follow through prior to CPI tomorrow #rates#yields#carry
Happy Wednesday! #IranWar kicked off overnight leading oil higher towards 3 figures. Mkt remains sanguine about it though with #kospi ticking higher fuelled by a positive SOX overnight. #CNY remains although inflation numbers out earlier today may put a pause on any more loosening in rates. divergence in CNY and JPY may well make CNH carry funding of choice. Strengthening JPY may well start hitting #nky on the back of exports
Happy Tuesday! US markets open and refocus on rates and CPI begins with PPI numbers out Thursday and CPI out Friday. The panic attack on rates currently should reframed and really be considered a repricing of risk back on normal terms esp given where global growth rates are. Asian market open high with Kospi leading up 2% and @SKhynix up 5%. This has been a positive start to the month for AI complex in Korea. From a carry perspective KRW has also been an outperformer over the last quarter helped by the ADR listing in US #carry#fx#korea
Happy Tuesday! We talked about the $HOOD complex yesterday (and indeed when it went live in July) that again got another leg up with ethereum:0xb50721bcf8d664c30412cfbc6cf7a15145234ad1 the latest seeing an uplift overnight. A basket of ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 + ethereum:0x58d97b57bb95320f9a05dc918aef65434969c2b2 + ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 +$ARB since the start of July when HOOD chain went live alongside its app) would have massively outperformed the market even on an equal weighted approach
TGIF! All eyes on solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 today having rallied significantly and with hours left until the 3 proposals end..nail biting as to if SIMD 550 passes or not #solana#sol
Happy Tuesday! Crypto disconnect with cash continues with $BTC and solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 crossing key trigger points. Additionally seeing basis trade rich across the majors $ETH, $BTC and more importantly solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112