Tyler John
@tyler_m_john
OK since p(doom) is discourse here is my view on communicating risk with probabilities. We should do it because it makes it much clearer to people what you think and is empirically demonstrated good epistemic practice. Also we should hedge to show high-order uncertainty.
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Tyler John@tyler_m_john · Sep 3, 2022I think a lot of people don't realise that EAs use Bayesian forecasting techniques with precise probabilities not because of some math/precision fetish but because it's been empirically demonstrated to be the best forecasting tool by @PTetlock and co. 🧵
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