*monitor-ability* is the invariant that must be preserved, and the real solution will be via strong mechanistic interpretability. i predict in the next year there’ll be mechinterp monitoring that’s pareto optimal to cot monitors
imo not having good CoT makes life harder: you need more mechinterp just to get to the same level of monitorability.
i also think it's unlikely mechinterp will be that good in a year. the current state is either pragmatic stuff (NLAs, oracles) all have to depend on rickety magic